Trump against Iran and the Houthis. Will the escalation in the Middle East turn into an oil crisis?
7-8 minutes
Trump against Iran and the Houthis. Will the escalation in the Middle East turn into an oil crisis?
Photo copyright: Reuters
photo captionTrump watched the strikes on the Houthis live
Author, Alexey Kalmykov
Place of work, BBC
March 19, 2025
Donald Trump launched the first military operation of his second presidential term and chose Iran as a target. He ordered the bombing of the Houthis in Yemen and threatened to use force against their sponsor, Tehran, if it continued to support the Houthis and they did not lift the naval blockade of the Red Sea, the main trade artery between Asia and Europe.
Restoring free navigation through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Suez Canal is a noble goal, the solution of which would bring some relief to the global economy.
However, experts do not believe in the success of Trump's bombing, pointing to past experience, and are surprised by the unexpected impulse of the US President to send the army to defend free trade at a time when Trump threatens to strangle it with tariffs war with the whole world.
But the escalation of the confrontation with Iran under the pretext of fighting the Houthis threatens a new energy crisis if it affects the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of all oil and gas is supplied to the world market from the Persian Gulf.
“Trump warned that Houthi counterattacks would be treated as attacks by Iran, and that Iran would be held accountable. For shipping, this means an increased risk of escalation, which could also affect the Strait of Hormuz,” writes maritime transport specialist Lars Jensen.
So far, analysts and financial markets consider this probability low - oil prices rose by a couple of dollars during the latest escalation, but on Wednesday they already dropped below $70 per barrel.
“Trump is directly threatening to bomb Iran, and oil prices have barely budged. The market appears to have become accustomed to the Houthi drama,” writes Gregory Brew, Eurasia Group’s lead energy and Iran analyst.
Trump needs a crisis, but not an oil crisis
Experts hope that Trump will try not to lead to a new global energy crisis, since he entered the White House with a promise to bring down oil and gasoline prices. If his predecessor Joe Biden threatened Iran with attacks on oil facilities, Trump did not mention it.
The Trump administration only slightly tightened oil sanctions against Iran: one minister and several tankers were subject to them. This did not affect oil production volumes.
“Despite American pressure on Iran and strikes against the Houthis, we have not yet seen any noticeable increase in US sanctions against Iranian oil,” notes Gregory Brew.
However, if the crisis gets out of control, oil infrastructure in the Middle East could suffer from Iranian and Houthi retaliation. The Shiite group is determined and is firing back - so far at American warships off the coast of Yemen.
Photo copyright: Reuters
photo caption: In September 2019, the Houthis bombed the Saudi Aramco refinery
Unlike the strikes against the Houthis under Biden, Trump is carrying out this operation alone, without the involvement of US allies. Arab countries are also remaining on the sidelines, which at this stage minimizes the risk to oil facilities in the Persian Gulf.
“If they continue to remain neutral, we will also abstain. But if even one of their planes or bases is used to attack us, we will escalate and defend ourselves,” Jamal Amer, the foreign minister of the Houthi group, which controls most of Yemen, told Reuters.
An escalation in this case would mean a resumption of Houthi attacks on the oil facilities of Saudi Arabia, the region’s largest oil producer and the Houthis’ main enemy in the Arab world.
“The Houthis will try to hit Trump where it hurts most: oil prices,” the Eurasia Group said in a research note cited by the AP. — The Arab countries of the Persian Gulf will stay away from this military operation. However, now their oil infrastructure is under threat.”
Why does Trump need a small victorious war?
Trump put pressure on Iran even in his first term, when he withdrew the United States from a nuclear deal with six major world powers, which included easing sanctions in exchange for abandoning the military part of Iran's nuclear program.
Returning to the White House in January 2025, Trump launched a “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran. Its goal is to weaken Israel's main enemy, prevent the creation of an Iranian nuclear bomb, and limit the range of Iranian ballistic missiles.
image copyrightEPA
Photo caption: Iranians write a response to Trump. It’s not hard to guess what it will be like. Rally in Tehran in January 2025
Trump's recently introduced oil sanctions against Iran turned out to be decorative. Since last September, Iran has consistently produced more than 3 million barrels per day, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. In the first term, US sanctions led to a drop in production to less than 2 million barrels.
Trump identified the main goal of “maximum pressure” not as Iran’s economy, but as its military capabilities in the region.
Now the network of Iranian-backed groups in the Middle East is seriously damaged by the confrontation with Israel and the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria. Iran is seeking to restore Hezbollah’s combat capability in Lebanon, but so far the most combat-ready link in the “axis of resistance” is the Houthis in Yemen.
It was on them that Trump unleashed American military power.
The bombings only provoked the Houthis. Despite the entreaties of the Europeans, calls from the UN and advice from Iran and Oman, they accepted the battle and began to fire at the aircraft carrier Harry Truman and the ships accompanying it. The Americans say that nothing reached them.
image copyrightEPA
Photo caption: The Houthis are not giving up. Demonstration in Sana'a on March 17
Trump promised that if the Houthis did not calm down, “all hell would fall on them,” and Iran would be the next target.
“We will respond to any retaliatory actions by the Houthis with force, and there is no guarantee that we will stop there. Every Houthi shot from now on will be considered an Iranian-led weapon fired by Iran, and Iran will be held accountable,” Trump wrote on social media.
US Foreign Secretary Marco Rubio compared Iran to Frankenstein and the Houthis to his monster. “They created Frankenstein’s monster, let them take responsibility for it,” he said.
Trump outlined his demands on Iran in a letter to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He demanded negotiations on the nuclear program to avoid the use of military force.
“If we have to use the military, it would be terrible for them,” Trump said in an interview with Fox. — Iran can be dealt with in two ways—militarily or by making a deal. I would prefer a deal because I don't want to harm Iran."
Khamenei responded by saying he would reject the demands of those who are “bullying and seeking domination rather than solving problems.”
There was no response to the letter, and Trump took the next step - he ordered the bombing of the Houthis. The crisis is in full swing.
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